UNIVERSITAS AIRLANGGA



Detail Article

Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan

ISSN 2302707X

Vol. 4 / No. 2 / Published : 2015-12

Order : 12, and page :191 - 200

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Original Article :

Pemodelan arima jumlah pencapaian peserta kb baru iud

Author :

  1. Charisma Arianti*1
  2. Arief Wibowo*2
  1. Mahasiswa Fakultas Kesehatan Masyarakat
  2. Dosen Fakultas Kesehatan Masyarakat

Abstract :

ARIMA was one of the effective methods of forecasting are used to model the data was not stationery. ARIMA methods suitable to forecasted the number of IUD acceptors in Jombang because the data pattern was not stationery and there was data history. This study was performed to predicted the number of new IUD acceptors achievement in Jombang by using ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). The data used the achievement of a new IUD participants in Jombang from January 2010 to December 2014 which were recorded in Badan Pemberdayaan Perempuan dan Keluarga Berencana Kabupaten Jombang. The best forecasting model obtained is ARIMA (0,1,1), with the folloeing model equation:(1-B) Xt = (1- 0,9746B) et. The number of achievement new IUD acceptors during the period of January 2015 until December 2016 which data has been obtained from ARIMA (0,1,1),are estimated at around 810 for 2015 and 663 for 2016 new participants to the value of MSE of 0.07818, which means the value of error is nearly 0, so the forecasting results obtained are fairly accurate. These forecasting results are used to forecast the number of new IUD acceptors achievement in Jombang for two years and can be used as a consideration in the decision to efforts to reduce the number of births in Jombang with KB, as well as relates policy considerations to make use of KB.

Keyword :

ARIMA, Family Planning, IUD,


References :

Aritonang, L,(2009) Peramalan Bisnis Jakarta : Ghalia Indonesia

Badan Pemberdayaan Perempuan dan Keluarga Berencana,(2013) Laporan Bulanan Pengendalian Lapangan Tingkat Kabupaten/ Kota Sistem Informasi Kependudukan Dan Keluarga (SIDUGA) Jombang : BKKBN

Darmawan, Gumgum,(2009) erbandingan Metode Peramalan ARIMA dan ARFIMA pada Data Long Memory Vol. 9 No. 2, 109 – 113. : Jurnal Statistika

Makridakis, S., Wheelwright, S.C., dan McGee, V. E,(1995) Metode dan Aplikasi Peramalan Jakarta : Binarupa Aksara

Manuaba., Ida Ayu Chandranita, Manuaba., Ida bagus Gde Fajar, Manuaba., Ida Bagus Gde,(2010) Ilmu Kebidanan Penyakit Kandungan dan KB Jakarta : EGC

Wei, W.W.S.,(2006) Time Series Univariat and Multivariate Methods. 2 nd ed. United State of America : Pearson Educati





Archive Article

Cover Media Content

Volume : 4 / No. : 2 / Pub. : 2015-12
  1. Analisis Deret Berkala Dengan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Dari Brown Dalam Meramalkan Jumlah Penderita Tb Paru
  2. Kondisi Demografi Sosio-ekonomi Dan Kesehatan Akseptor Vasektomi
  3. Pengaruh Dukungan Keluarga Terhadap Peningkatan Angka Sectio Caesarea
  4. Pengaruh Usia Menarche Usia Terakhir Melahirkan Dan Paritas Terhadap Usia Menopause
  5. Hubungan Dan Faktor Risiko Partus Lama, Riwayat Perdarahan Postpartum Dan Berat Bayi Lahir Besar Dengan Kejadian Perdarahan Postpartum
  6. Peramalan Jumlah Kunjungan Hemodialisis Dengan Metode Exponential Smoothing Dan Arima
  7. Pemodelan Binomial Negatif Untuk Mengatasi Overdispersi Data Diskrit Pada Kasus Baru Tb Di Provinsi Jawa Timur
  8. Estimasi Parameter Model Generalized Poisson Regression Jumlah Kematian Ibu Di Jawa Timur Yang Mengalami Overdispersi
  9. Pemodelan Regresi Logistik Backwardpada Faktor Risiko Kanker Serviks Di Yayasan Kanker Wisnuwardhana Surabaya
  10. Hubungan Budaya Patriarki Dan Pemahaman Informasi Kb Dengan Kepesertaan Kontrasepsi
  11. Peramalan Migrasi Masuk Kota Surabaya Tahun 2015 Dengan Metode Double Moving Averagedan Double Exponential Smoothing Brown
  12. Dukungan Informasi Tentang Menstruasi Kepada Anak Usia Sekolah Dasar
  13. Pemodelan Arima Jumlah Pencapaian Peserta Kb Baru Iud

Information FMI@comparison-of-apoptotic-index-and-the-amount-of-brain/JBK