UNIVERSITAS AIRLANGGA



Detail Article

Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan

ISSN 2302707X

Vol. 4 / No. 2 / Published : 2015-12

Order : 6, and page :125 - 133

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Original Article :

Peramalan jumlah kunjungan hemodialisis dengan metode exponential smoothing dan arima

Author :

  1. Karol Octrisdey*1
  2. Hari Basuki Notobroto*2
  3. Windhu Purnomo*3
  1. Mahasiswa Fakultas Kesehatan Masyarakat
  2. Dosen Fakultas Kesehatan Masyarakat
  3. Dosen Fakultas Kesehatan Masyarakat

Abstract :

Exponential smoothing method is one of time-series analysis, and forecasting method by giving a weighted value on a series of previous observations to predict the future value. ARIMA method will work well if the data in the time series used are dependent or related to each other statistically. This research includes a study design non-reactive by using secondary data, because the data obtained from subjects without needed treatment. In this study the method of Holt ‘Linear Exponential Smoothing and ARIMA used to analyze the monthly record of visits hemodialysis data at Prof. Dr. W. Z Johannes Kupang Hospital during the period January 2009 to April 2014. Data was to create a time series plot ,estimated the parameters and test the suitability of the model and took some predictions for the next period. After that, compared the valueof the smallest forecasting error between the methods of Holt ‘Linear Exponential Smoothing and ARIMA on number of hemodialysis visits with MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error), MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) and MSD (Mean Square Deviation). The results of this study were obtained from the best model of Holt method ‘ Linear Exponential Smoothing with alpha (level) = 0.99 and gamma (trend) = 0:01 = 22:19 MAPE, MAD and MSD = 85.72=24200.9 and ARIMA methods MAPE = 39.85, MAD = 99.4 and MSD= 16151.8.The conclusion that the best method to predict the number of hemodialysis visits at Prof. Dr. W. Z. Johannes Kupang Hospital was Holt Linear Exponential Smoothing method. Keywords: Holt’Method, ARIMA Method, hemodialysis visits

Keyword :

Holt’Method, ARIMA Method, hemodialysis visits,


References :

Yani, R.W.E,(2008) Aplikasi Regresi Linier G a n d a P a d a Bi d a n g K e d o k t e r a n G i gi 15 (3): 180-186 : Indonesian Journal of Dentistry

P ra se t ya , L ,(2009) M a najem e n Ope rasi Yogyakarta : MedPress (Anggota IKAPI)

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Makridakis. S, Mc Gee. V.E, & Wheelwright. S.C.,(1995) Metode dan Aplkasi Peramalan, Edisi kedua Jakarta : Erlangga

Badria,(2008) Penggunaan Metode Exponential Smoothing Untuk Meramalkan Kebutuhan Cengkeh Di Pabrik Rokok Adi Bungsu Malang : Universitas Brawijaya





Archive Article

Cover Media Content

Volume : 4 / No. : 2 / Pub. : 2015-12
  1. Analisis Deret Berkala Dengan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Dari Brown Dalam Meramalkan Jumlah Penderita Tb Paru
  2. Kondisi Demografi Sosio-ekonomi Dan Kesehatan Akseptor Vasektomi
  3. Pengaruh Dukungan Keluarga Terhadap Peningkatan Angka Sectio Caesarea
  4. Pengaruh Usia Menarche Usia Terakhir Melahirkan Dan Paritas Terhadap Usia Menopause
  5. Hubungan Dan Faktor Risiko Partus Lama, Riwayat Perdarahan Postpartum Dan Berat Bayi Lahir Besar Dengan Kejadian Perdarahan Postpartum
  6. Peramalan Jumlah Kunjungan Hemodialisis Dengan Metode Exponential Smoothing Dan Arima
  7. Pemodelan Binomial Negatif Untuk Mengatasi Overdispersi Data Diskrit Pada Kasus Baru Tb Di Provinsi Jawa Timur
  8. Estimasi Parameter Model Generalized Poisson Regression Jumlah Kematian Ibu Di Jawa Timur Yang Mengalami Overdispersi
  9. Pemodelan Regresi Logistik Backwardpada Faktor Risiko Kanker Serviks Di Yayasan Kanker Wisnuwardhana Surabaya
  10. Hubungan Budaya Patriarki Dan Pemahaman Informasi Kb Dengan Kepesertaan Kontrasepsi
  11. Peramalan Migrasi Masuk Kota Surabaya Tahun 2015 Dengan Metode Double Moving Averagedan Double Exponential Smoothing Brown
  12. Dukungan Informasi Tentang Menstruasi Kepada Anak Usia Sekolah Dasar
  13. Pemodelan Arima Jumlah Pencapaian Peserta Kb Baru Iud

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