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The Indonesian Journal of Public Health

ISSN 1829-7005

Vol. 4 / No. 3 / Published : 2008-03

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Original Article :

Indikator prediksi kejadian luar biasa (klb) campak di provinsi jawa barat

Author :

  1. Agus Salim*1
  2. Hari Basuki Notobroto*2
  3. Fariani Syahrul*3
  1. Dinas Kesehatan Provinsi Jawa Barat
  2. Departemen Biostatistika dan Kependudukan FKM Universitas Airlangga
  3. Departemen Epidemiologi FKM Universitas Airlangga

Abstract :

Measles is a communicable disease caused by measles virus and can cause outbreak. One of efforts to prevent it is by increasing measlesimmunization coverage for infant. It needs coverage up to 80–95% for some years. In 2005 there were 34 measles outbreaks in 14 West Javadistricts with 646 cases (CFR = 1.24%), and in 2006, 43 measles outbreaks with 398 cases (CFR = 0%) were happened at 10 districts.The goal of this study was to develop indicator for predicting measles outbreak based on measles risk factors. The design of this researchwas case control with secondary data analysis and village as unit of analysis. Sample was 129 villages, divided into 2 groups, 43 villages for cases and 86 villages for controls. The result indicated that immunization coverage and nutritional status of under-five children could be used as indicators of measles outbreak. Equation model for measles outbreak prediction was P = 7.679–0.028* (immunization coverage) – 0.070* (% normal weight of under-five). The value of P < 0 indicated that a village had risk of measles outbreak. Based on the result, it could be concluded that immunization coverage and nutritional status of under-five could be used as indicators to predict measles outbreak, so to prevent the outbreak, it was needed to increase both coverage.

Keyword :

measles outbreak, indicators, immunization, nutritional status,

References :


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