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Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan

ISSN 2302707X

Vol. 3 / No. 2 / Published : 2014-12

TOC : 7, and page :143 - 150

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Original Article :

Perbandingan hasil peramalan dengan metode double exponential smoothing holt dan metode jaringan syaraf tiruan

Author :

  1. Oki Dwi Hartanti*1
  1. Mahasiswa Fakultas Kesehatan Masyarakat

Abstract :

ABSTRACT Forecasting is a method to predict future events using data and information of the past. Forecasting is a tool to help plan effective and efficient. This study aims to compare the method of double exponential smoothing Holt and artificial neural network method. This study includes a descriptive study using secondary data. The data used are monthly data amount Jember measles immunization coverage 2008–2013. Data obtained by a recapitulation of the measles immunization coverage in the East Java Provincial Health Office. Data analysis was performed with the aid of a computer program that uses Zaitun Time Series. The results obtained from this study include the best model for double exponential smoothing Holt method uses the value of α = 0.1 and γ = 0.1. The best model for the method using a neural network architecture of 12-4-1. MSE values produced by the method of double exponential smoothing Holt 151376,63; while the artificial neural network method of 14010,27. Average percentage error produced by the method of double exponential smoothing Holt is 9.71% while the artificial neural network method, namely 0.36%. The conclusion of this study is the artificial neural network method is more appropriate to use in predicting the number of measles immunization coverage in Jember. The best method obtained can be used as input to program planning. Keywords: double exponential smoothing holt, artificial neural networks, measles immunization coverage, forecasting

Keyword :

double exponential smoothing holt, artificial neural networks, measles immunization coverage, forecasting,


References :

  1. Arsyad, L., (2009). Peramalan Bisnis. . Yogyakarta : BPFE
  2. Awwaliyah, N, (2013). Penerapan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing dalam Meramalkan Jumlah Penderita Kusta di Kabupaten Pasuruan Tahun 2014. Surabaya : Universitas Airlangga
  3. Hanke, J.E., Wichern, D.E., (2005). Business Forecasting Eight Edition. . New Jersey : Pearson Education Inc
  4. Inayah, Z. , (2010). Perbandingan Metode Holt dan Brown pada Double Exponential Smoothing (Peramalan Jumlah Kejadian TB Paru) . Surabaya : Universitas Airlangga.
  5. Santoso, S. , (2009). Business Forecasting: Metode Peramalan Bisnis Masa Kini dengan Minitab dan SPSS.. Jakarta : PT Elex Media Komputindo:


   


Archive Article

Cover Media Content

Volume : 3 / No. : 2 / Pub. : 2014-12
  1. Determinan bayi dengan berat badan lahir rendah
  2. Faktor risiko kematian ibu dengan preeklampsia/eklampsia dan perdarahan di provinsi jawa timur
  3. Hubungan dukungan suami dengan tingkat kecemasan istri dalam menghadapi menopause
  4. Kondisi pembeda volume perdarahan kala iv
  5. Perbandingan tingkat konsistensi normalitas distribusi metode kolmogorov-smirnov, lilliefors, shapiro-wilk, dan skewness-kurtosis
  6. Pengaruh faktor reproduksi ibu dan anemia terhadap lama persalinan kala i fase aktif
  7. Perbandingan hasil peramalan dengan metode double exponential smoothing holt dan metode jaringan syaraf tiruan
  8. Analisis spasial faktor determinan incident rate difteri
  9. Pengaruh antenatal care terhadap kejadian berat bayi lahir rendah (bblr)
  10. Analisis hubungan kunjungan neonatal, asfiksia dan bblr dengan kematian neonatal
  11. Pengaruh karakteristik demografi, covert behavior dan akses pelayanan kesehatan ibu hamil terhadap kunjungan antenatal care