UNIVERSITAS AIRLANGGA



Detail Article

Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan

ISSN 2302707X

Vol. 4 / No. 2 / Published : 2015-12

Order : 11, and page :172 - 180

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Original Article :

Peramalan migrasi masuk kota surabaya tahun 2015 dengan metode double moving averagedan double exponential smoothing brown

Author :

  1. Auli Fisty Noor Azizah*1
  1. Mahasiswa Fakultas Kesehatan Masyarakat

Abstract :

Forecasting was an effective and efficient tool in planning, especially in the areas of population to do significant decisions. One area that needs to be done forecasting population was the number of population migration. Among the several methods of forecasting of time series data, appropriate methods for data containing trends such as data migration was double moving average and double exponential smoothing Brown method. This study aims to apply these methods to the data of Surabaya in-migration. Results of this study shows that the number of in-migration was predicted by double moving average method derived from the order 5. While the method of double exponential smoothing Brown, the number of in-migration foreseen by the parameter α = 0,05. Based on the smallest Mean Square Error and Mean Percentage Error, it was known that the method of double exponential smoothing Brown had more appropriate for forecasting in-migration than double moving average method. Prediction results were very useful for policy planning related to migration so that the impact of migration can be minimized.

Keyword :

moving average, exponential, migration,


References :

ABE Ken-ichi & ISHII Masako,(2000) Population Movement in Southeast Asia: Changing Identities and Strategies for Surviva Osaka : The Japan Center for Area Studies National Movement of Ethnology

Arsyad,(2009) Peramalan Bisnis Jakarta : Ghalia Indonesia

David, etc,(1982) Pengantar Kependudukan Yogyakarta : Gadjah Mada University Press

Hugo, Graeme.,(2001) Population Mobility and HIV/AIDS in Indonesia Australia : Adelaide University

Jackson, John Archer.,(1969) Migration United Kingdom : Cambridge University Press

Todaro, Michael P,(1988) M i g r a t i o n , Unemployment, and Development: A Two Sector Analysis Vol.60 : The American Economic Review

Warsono, Prasetyoadi,(2005) Arus Balik Kependudukan Jakarta : Pustaka Sinar Harapan





Archive Article

Cover Media Content

Volume : 4 / No. : 2 / Pub. : 2015-12
  1. Analisis Deret Berkala Dengan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Dari Brown Dalam Meramalkan Jumlah Penderita Tb Paru
  2. Kondisi Demografi Sosio-ekonomi Dan Kesehatan Akseptor Vasektomi
  3. Pengaruh Dukungan Keluarga Terhadap Peningkatan Angka Sectio Caesarea
  4. Pengaruh Usia Menarche Usia Terakhir Melahirkan Dan Paritas Terhadap Usia Menopause
  5. Hubungan Dan Faktor Risiko Partus Lama, Riwayat Perdarahan Postpartum Dan Berat Bayi Lahir Besar Dengan Kejadian Perdarahan Postpartum
  6. Peramalan Jumlah Kunjungan Hemodialisis Dengan Metode Exponential Smoothing Dan Arima
  7. Pemodelan Binomial Negatif Untuk Mengatasi Overdispersi Data Diskrit Pada Kasus Baru Tb Di Provinsi Jawa Timur
  8. Estimasi Parameter Model Generalized Poisson Regression Jumlah Kematian Ibu Di Jawa Timur Yang Mengalami Overdispersi
  9. Pemodelan Regresi Logistik Backwardpada Faktor Risiko Kanker Serviks Di Yayasan Kanker Wisnuwardhana Surabaya
  10. Hubungan Budaya Patriarki Dan Pemahaman Informasi Kb Dengan Kepesertaan Kontrasepsi
  11. Peramalan Migrasi Masuk Kota Surabaya Tahun 2015 Dengan Metode Double Moving Averagedan Double Exponential Smoothing Brown
  12. Dukungan Informasi Tentang Menstruasi Kepada Anak Usia Sekolah Dasar
  13. Pemodelan Arima Jumlah Pencapaian Peserta Kb Baru Iud

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